by Tina » Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:07:14 am
I have covered my concerns about going up against Chris previously, but the short, short version is he is too big a threat to leave. It is a bit of a gamble, because just leaving Carter in the game as a big immunity threat, if it is a challenge that we all actually have an equal shot at, then anything could happen. If he wins immunity, then good luck to him, but I have an argument I can put against that if that is the case, that despite such a solid social game and everything, he had basically 4 rounds in which to be able to use his social skills in order to make it that he did not need to win immunity, but never did. So he had to go with a riaky strategy of having to depend exclusively on immunities for his survival.
Chris has won 4 ind challenges, so had game there. He has carried the returning player tag and the ambassador tag. That is 2 huge targets that he was able to carry without ever being an obvious target, because of his social game, but also his tactic of being elusive to logging on. This gameplay - a large part of which I was side by side with him on, especially strategically, but I think I had him covered in that department also. Although am pretty certain he knew that I was targeting him at F7, but that was Debb spilling the beans that caused that. Otherwise... on the strategic game I think I could have beaten him, socially he has those 2 major cravats (get it?) that would make his story attractive to a Jury, and challenge wise, had the performances. But a triple threat, none the less, If it was just him as a big challenge threat, no probs, I would have been more than happy to go to the end with him, but there is so much more to Chris than just that. A hell of a guy though. Am glad to have gotten to play the game with him.
I have played up Kimmi being a social threat most of the game and it has taken the hook, and have likened Kimmi in this game to Ethan in Africa or Sophie in SP. Ethan as probably the ultimate 'nice guy' winner. Sophie because, so often in this game Kimmi's best move has been to not make a move. While that does go to speak about her positioning it is only through the grace of others that she has remained in this game. Kimmi, if she is at the end will have a lot of goodwill toward her, but I think it can be toppled when it comes to examining other faucets other than her friendly and effective social game.
Carter will also have a lot of goodwill if he gets to the FTC. He has the underdog edit and fighting the odds and all that jazz, especially after he and Angie had been on top all through the pre-merge part of the game. But it meant that they got complacent, they got caught out and after which as Carter has himself said, his ony chance of making it to the end was winning his way to the end. This is not quite true, as he got through a round or 2 partly based on the fact people were so fixated with targeting Angie over him, just as Angie/Carter were fixated on Kimmi over Jeff, but also because I wanted these threats left in the game. But entire dependance on immunity indicates a complete failure of his social game over these past few rounds.
People might equate that to Chris Daugherty in Vanuatu, but as opposed to that situation, even after Scout, Twila and Eliza worked with him to take out Leann, he was able to survive without immunity had these 3 wanted to them turn on him when Eliza won for example, at F5. But playing Eliza & Julie v Scout & Twila showed he was very capable of surviving even without the immunity. That is positioning.
Even though Carter attempted to wrest control back at F6, at F5 it was once again the balance of power was with me. So apart from that one round when it was idol, idols everywhere, he never again had a significant strategic impact on the game after Hayden was voted out at F10. Dependance on immunity is NOT good positioning.
Jeff is actually going to be a bit tougher than I thought when I was thinking about this at the weekend, but just as then I had thought my best chances to win had to be v Jeff and Debb. Yes, he has voted out the most, apart from me
Kimmi - didnt vote Hayden, Richard, Debb
Jeff - didnt vote Hayden, Debb
Carter - didnt vote Denise, Angie, Chris.
(Oh, and last round forgot that Chris voted Richard not Hayden at F10, so that was another I was up last round also.)
So I definitely have him on the blood on the hands catagory. How many people can he say it was his move to take out since the merge? Maybe Ramona? But seriously, it was always going to be one of the 3 Rai at that vote, and I had a stinging migraine that whole day anyhow. Chris, no. Debb, no. Angie, not really. Was onboard, but he didnt drive it. Richard - he was brought on board minutes before the vote, and even then he didnt know my intended target was Rich - he thought it was for an HII split but that Angie was going. Denise, no - that was Chris and I. Hayden, no - had Hayden stayed he could lay claim there for sure. but I made my bed and lay in it, and made the move to shake it up after instead of sitting back. So I was definitely much more proactive in this. Positionally, it was never like he was in danger, and always had Kimmi etc as a shield. He won a couple of challenges (1 pre & 1 post merge), but I dont think he was awesome.
To win, I'm under no illusion - I have a massive uphill battle in front of me. I have a lot of pissed off people waiting, should I get there. But I hope I can put together a case that is worthy. I certainly think I have been playing very hard the whole way, and there is no way I can be described as just a passenger in this game. Kimmi could be characterized that way to some degree. In fact all of the rest of the F4 could.
By contrast, the way I was able to play both sides of Kirati and Madhesi and was able to shift from one to the other and back again, and all the time able to maintain keeping those doors open to move back and forth again. This speaks to my positioning, that I always made it seem like my game was dependant on the will of others, rather than their game was dependant on me. This way I was able to establiush and reestablish trust, time and time again, despite flat out lying to people at times, but other times, making sure I had set up plausible explanations for the actions i took. It has not been perfect, but it has been aggressive and proactive, sometimes it has been forethought, sometimes it has been reactionary, sometimes it has been a slice of self preservation, but always it has resulted in the same. Since the merge I have never been the target and even if my name has been brought up have been able to make sure it didnt finish on me, either by siding with those that may be tempted to target me, so if they are relying on my vote, then they are not going to vote for me.
Flip flopping is something noone else can say they did in this game, in terms of the people remaining. Let alone being able to do it , back and forth. They all played it safe. Had one alliance, and stuck to it.
I may not be well liked, but am hoping by highlighting the aggressiveness of my game, the bold lying and with its flaws, my game has never been about sitting back and just letting things happen around me. If I get to the end, I may still end up losing, but I think there may be a few surprises in store if anyone is complacent about going there with me.
I may be a bitch. I may be a villian, but I have had a hell of a lot of influence on the course of the game, especially post merge - after having to fight and do what was needed to even get to that point.
On another note, I know Carter was poissed at me after the last round so thought it best to take a good break away from the game to give him time to cool off before pick it back up, and having the day off last night was perfect timing for this also.
I just hope I can articulate that, if I get there.
