I may be delusional but I think I have a decent shot to win.
What are there, 4 combinations left? If I were to put 100 chips down on each possible finale matchup, this is how I would spread them out:
Carter, Jeff, Tina : 70, 20, 10
Carter, Jeff, Kimmi : 70, 20, 10
Jeff, Kimmi, Tina : 50, 40, 10
Carter, Kimmi, Tina : 70, 20, 10
I don't know if this is how you do it but Carter averages at about a 52% chance to win, me at 22%, Kimmi at 18% and Tina at 8%. Sounds about right to me.
I think I can beat Carter if he butchers FTC and I do great in it. I think I am the favorite to win among the other 2, but only over Kimmi by a slim margin. I think Kimmi's threat level is the product of a hype machine specifically started by Stacey saying she loves her and hated everyone else so they always saw Kimmi with 1 vote (as Carter has said).
I don't know if any minds are made up but if they go in open-minded, I think I can convince a few people because I truly believe I should win. I think my resume is more impressive than Carter's (I am not particularly a fan of requiring immunity), but I think people love him because he was generally a nice guy who became an underdog and ran the table to the end. I don't believe he was really working any big moves or anything beside that one BIG MOVE!!!! to save Chris which ultimately did nothing but provide our side with another option to boot out in the event he won immunity (which he did) and made it so Debb could go home without needing to betray her.
How does the jury see you at the moment?
I don't know. It's incredibly hard for me to gauge myself in the perception of others.
Stacey probably sees me as the person who went against her alliance. She's only seen tribal councils since where her alliance/tribe went out nearly one-by-one. She probably favors Kimmi which doesn't make much sense to me because Kimmi lied to Stacey that entire time post-merge about being with her/ the Rai alliance and never intended to vote with them and instead wanted to vote her out the entire time. That is something I would appreciate because I did the same to the Rai alliance. I think she will vote Kimmi. She hates Carter/Tina (so I hear) so maybe she will vote for me if it is the 3 of us in the finals.
Ramona probably sees me as the cocky little arrogant snake as she called me way back when she was still in the game. I told her not to vote for me because I wasn't concerned with jury votes at that point. I genuinely didn't think I would make it to the end at that point and now that I can see the finish line, I am still not particularly bothered by that move because it worked out for me quite well. I needed another Rai to go and she made it easy for me by trying to get me out so that was a very convenient excuse for me to vote against Hayden/Rich and keep them by my side. I think I should assume I will not get her vote and be pleasantly surprised if she gets it.
Hayden, I'm not sure how he sees me. I was pretty straight up with him the entire time and hopefully Rich owns up to voting him out but I doubt he will do that. Maybe Debb could set the record straight. If Hayden thinks I voted for him to go home (which he won't after he reads my final plea because I will probably mention that swing and miss at least once), he might not be too thrilled with me. But when he finds out I didn't vote for him to go and was instead planning to go far in the game with him, he might be happy that I am in the end along with 3 people who voted him out. He seems like the type that would award the immunity win driven underdog story though. Me over Kimmi/Tina though? I think so.
Denise is a tricky one as well. Denise is awesome but she probably sees me as someone who was always bull-headed in my pursuits in this game despite giving her a very legitimate gameplan back in nuKirati based on an idol bluff that was foolproof because I had the idol. I believe she appreciated it. The merge came and she went back to the other side but "kept up" with me, until I made a swing at the other alliance and missed, and was acting like I was down in the dumps. I think she took this as a "table turned" moment and was being very unlike Denise in a sort of condescending way which was strange, but she probably was feeling good because she got Rich to flip (good move, btw) and thought she was running shit. She then immediately went home. I'm not sure how to gauge her vote because I think she likes me but will she give Carter the win? not sure. Me over Kimmi/Tina? I think so.
Rich probably sees me as someone similar to him - an opportunist. I think Rich will appreciate my approach to the game because I believe it is the same type of approach he had to his game, which was to go to whichever side was more appealing at the time and abandon ship, then hope to survive after that ship has sank. I think he will also appreciate that I found the idol from right out from under his nose and kept it under complete wraps until the F6. I'm a little nervous he will prefer Tina based on his jury statements but I think Rich is a vote I could possibly sway, no matter who is with me.
Angie is a tough one because she will undoubtedly vote Carter because she and Carter were a pair through the entire game. If Carter is not there, I don't know if she would vote for me or for Tina because I know Tina was close with her but apparently Tina lied to her a lot and I didn't, so I don't know. I think she is someone who respects the game enough to at least consider voting for me, but if Carter is there I don't think I have her vote.
Debb I think will vote for me. I'm pretty sure she will vote for me no matter who is there with me. I think me > Tina > Kimmi > Carter in terms of her vote.
Chris, I don't think I will have his vote at all. I think he was so out of touch in the game that he probably has absolutely no idea what I've been doing, despite being in the game the entire time. He probably wants Carter to win and will hype up Tina's game in the jury. I think he will vote for Carter and if Carter is not there, Tina, maybe Tina overall.
Last jurors, each one I guess
Carter, I think I could sway him but I think his vote is tentatively on Kimmi. I think he bought the hype machine hard and respects that he tried to get her out at various times in the game and never could. He thinks she was running the game but I think I can convince him otherwise. I think his vote is penciled in at Kimmi but could be for me.
Kimmi, I think votes for me no matter the outcome, despite our deal. I think.
Tina, I think votes for me no matter the outcome because I think she is the type that likes being respected and people being polite with her and all of that stuff. And I feel like I did that for most of the game with her if not all. I think I would get her vote.
by Marissa Peterson » Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:25:41 am 
