Pre-Game Assessments

[Brenda Lowe]

(Also posting to see how hot I am this Season )

Kirati Tribe

I don't see any real massive weak links on Kirati. No obvious first boots and no monolith player that is unbeatable. So much will depend too, on who is elected Ambassador and how much the tribe breakdown shifts around each round. They should be solid in challenges despite half them being first-time players. In a three tribe set-up this could be enough to keep them intact through the shuffle with a slew of second-places for safety without painting a big target on them.

Some General predictions; Angie & Lisa to become a super-tight pair. Chris & Zane the same, and if Artis doesn't link with these two early, he'll be first boot over here. And if Denise were to take the obvious route and link up with the girls.. well then it's already 3v3 and Carter floating. And ofc Carter is the one player I just can't call from his app.. who knows where he'd lean?

Most likely early boot; Artis or Carter
Most likely winner; Angie or Zane

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Chris
(aka justincorporated)

This guy applying every Season At least we know he is eager. Justin is a familiar name to me but I've never actually played directly with him and hosted him just the once in Costa Rica. He is still the most veteran of the three returnees, does he host his own ProBoards series of some sort? But I thought that last time too and in his app he says how he was still a noob last go round.

My impression of him is that he is maybe a little cold socially and ..um, not a gamebot, but definitely leaning that direction. His bonds are the type where it's good business and not just based on who sent the most lovehearts to him. I like this type of player - if I can see why you aligning with me is good for you, then I can trust you so long as I don't see a better route for you - buuuuut, a lot of people don't, and would prefer the luvvy dovey players.

From what I remember he is very good at challenges. I think his tribe will keep him for that alone so long as he embraces leadership instead of trying to shirk it. (I wrote this originally thinking he was auto-Ambassador. I could see the returnees getting voted in to that regardless.

I expect he will do well enough. Let's say sixth-ish, taken out post-merge at some point for being a challenge threat.

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Angie
(aka Minah)

Best app? Probst thinks so

This girl seems like a natural. She mentions full-on in her app and lolyes, she totally is. That is an essay about Jerri Manthley in there. That LoL mindset is a good translation to ORGing and so long as you are dedicated and active, you will avoid the typical first-boot mistakes of not PMing or just not being here. That ought to get her past the first few rounds easy, and she is just extremely personable which I think will carry her later on. A little flirty, a little motor-mouthed, a little squealy-fangirl, and she will find some people to link up with based on these traits. And with that cute an avatar, who could boot her anyway? I can see her getting in real tight with a little clique of three or four players and being the glue of that without being the leader.

She fears for her abilities in challenges but she seems very computer literate so she'll be just fine there and maybe a surprise challenge whore even.

I think she will do very well, in fact I can see her being a Jury threat and leaving late game for that reason. But she just might sneak the win. I expect she will be fun as fuck and a host fave regardless of placement.

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Artis
(aka NasalJack)

I was about to say how he would hate the Artis rep but I see he actually picked it. It is a really good fit for him going by his app. I think he is very intelligent and will be a good strategic gamer, but he is also very weak socially both due to being a bit shy, and maybe underestimating just how much a good bond formed will tide you through a tough round more than it making strategic sense. And maybe even being a bit grouchy? I think he will click with Chris very easily, and I think both will not like Angie. (I should really read everything then post instead of reading them one at a time here).

I like that he has a very detailed and complex gameplan prepped, and then caps it by saying this could all be for naught if the situation doesn't fit. It shows he is thinking, but also flexible and smart enough to realise that you can't plan for this shit any more than very vaguely.

What else.., I see you gave him a decent Skype run-through, but I can still see this being a classic first-time-player's game. Where he is still getting to grips with a lot of the basics and is overly cautious and doesn't put himself out there enough. Sometimes that'll work out if your tribe is either strong enough to avoid the TCs, or so weak you look good in comparison. But idk, I get an early boot vibe, but someone who will be back in some future game with a much better idea of what needs to be done and more comfortable and confident.

Predicting one of;
early tribe boot;
early tribe trade-away and then boot by new tribe;
into tribe majority, so carried to merge by tribe and merge boot;
or into dominant tribal majority, and dragged deep with no chance to actually win .

Not a good result for him whichever way it plays out.

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Carter
(aka Robbroy45)

I am both excited for a ChrisD fan, and vomming for a Tom W fan, make up your mind dammit! I am not sure this is a good rep-fit. He seems to go for big-move players, and Carter was anything but. He does seem to have youth on his side but not too much, I mean more in game terms than RL. RL wise he is graduating from college so we can know he's got some smarts, I wonder if he'll play himself down and into the role? He does mention some tactics based around dumbing things down in his app too.

Going by the Skype he has an infectious enthusiasm that isn't quite evident in the app either. I think he'll be a little cautious for the first week, one of these - very little personality in public but lots of talk/thinking in confessional and with one or two select PM chains - but get past a TC or two and he'll ramp his game up once he is comfortable with the set-up of the game.

Prediction wise I don't really know at all. If he does slow-build from off-the-radar to big name that right there is a winning strategy. OTOH he could just as easily flop hard and get cut early. I am gonna mark him down for a mid-game finish, even though I'm feeling it's gonna be a more extreme placement to one end or the other.

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Denise
(aka Lor)

I am getting serious Gina vibes here. I don't want to say 'boring', but lets go with un-exciting. Just very capable and good at stuff and doesn't really strike me as someone who is gonna flip on a whim unless she is very confident it is most definitely for the best and failsafe. How very vanilla. She is fresh to ORGing though, so maybe we'll get some noob errors to spice up her game some. She sells herself as obsessive too, so maybe more Helen than Gina I ended up loving both Gina & Helen so there's plenty of hope here.

On the plus side she is capable and level-headed and I am gonna predict way too loyal, and this tribe is gonna need the splash of that in between the crazy and the cut-throat, so from that perspective she'll be a little different and maybe even stand-out. I would love to see her tribe go nuts and her just be swept along as the sober player on a sinking ship trying to translate events into her own terms. And I do think the stimulus to pep up her game is gonna have to come from the people she's interacting with instead of from herself.

I don't want to trash her too hard before Season even starts, and moving on to her Skype convo she comes across a little better and less cookie-cutter than in the app. And please don't take my word as God here. I am sure she will appeal more to different people. And I'm sure in my first game I would have read exactly the same (except more clueless lol).

I will predict her to do as well as her tribe does (opposite of RL Denise lol). And that is really tricky in a three tribe game. If they do well early she'll do well, but they'll get teamed up on at merge as will she. So if they suck early, and make it to merge in the minority they (& she) are maybe even better off and she could turn things around if they can as a group. How very vague of me. Let's say early post-merge boot. 10th-ish

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Lisa
(aka Voltage)

I am afraid everyone else here knows Voltage better than I do. I always thought he was a dA recruit but I see he's never played a single dA game whoops. Never played with him, never hosted him, so purely based on his App; she is quite young for this cast but one of the more experienced players here with a few games under her belt (also I clearly just now discovered he is actually a she ). Seems to work best in tiny groups of twos and threes than in big old alliances - I can see her & Angie clicking really well?

Other than that I'm not picking up much here. I like that she acknowledges that she is prone to screwing things up - that is both good awareness and promising for entertainment's sake for us. I think I will leave the rest of this write-up to the hosts that know her better.

FWIW I loved Lisa and it seems like a good fit despite the age difference. In ORG terms, she is way older/more experienced than 90% of this cast - but even then she has that noobness that Lisa had in that the few who are more experienced than her (i.e. Debb/Chris), are waaaaaaay more experienced than her.

For a prediction I don't know at all. Knowing the ropes will get her a certain amount through the game and she might even land with a kind of leaderish/old hand position in the eyes of Angie/Artis/Carter. But again she is not that experienced so I think will stumble somewhere pretty early. MOR finish somewhere tween late pre-merge or in that weird 10th-7th time of game. Let's say swap-fucked by shuffle or Ambassador.

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Zane
(aka Connman2612 / AusStranded's Jaison)

I wish I had swung into his application thread earlier, because I have to respectfully disagree with the "follower" label. Yes he did lose unanimously in his debut AusStranded Season, but from what I've seen of that game during and afterwards he was very much an equal partner to Marty (i.e. our Vytas) and was even the safer of the two by not seeming so big a threat. his big mistake there was actually going to the end with Marty but iirc, he challenged whored his way so couldn't have been cut even if J was willing. Meanwhile in the Expendables, he was very thorough and stable and got swapfucked in a game where the two sides had such a sheep tribe mentality. The final seven or something was all from the one beginning tribe. If anything, he was taken out that early for being one of the more threatening from his tribe.

He has a real eagerness about his app too - like not just enthusiasm but rather a chip on his shoulder and a score to settle. I think and hope that in-game this could translate to a real bona fide Villain and not just the wannabe villains who are trying to be seen as such. I am actually quite excited to see him play now and it's the top app for me that I've read so far. I kind of think he's really gonna grab this game by the balls for better or worse. #theZaneShow

Add to this he has a little experience, he'll be good enough in challenges and he knows his way around a forum. I think he'll be just grand. And maybe even the dark horse to win the lot.

Prediction; I have yet to read up on the other two tribes, but I'll stake him as Winner

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[Brenda Lowe]

Madhesi Tribe

Okay Madhesi. These are definitely the most experienced tribe of the three, and I wouldn't be too surprised to see them hit the merge with a numbers advantage for it. That might be a big advantage in a two tribe game, but with three tribes, yeah that's gonna be a bad thing

Debb has played a whole lot of these things and Mad Dog and Kimmi have a handful under their belts. This is Keith & PB's second go-arounds leaving Tina & Jeff as the only legitimate noobs. I really do think Tina is gonna hurt here for that compared to the rest. She is not necessarily boned from the get-go though. For one thing, this tribe won't make a habit of coming last in challenges. I can see a lot of first and seconds and a lot of TC-free nights. Second to that, PB is nuts, Keith is a little nuts, Jeff is probably nuts, Debb is nuts when she feels like it, and Mad Dog is a little yes.. nuts So all it takes is one little explosion or drama fuelled moment as they all grapple for power and Tina & Kimmi as the sane pair can glide right by.

Likely early boots; Tina, Keith, Jeff, PB (yes all four lul)
Likely Game Winners; Debb, Mad Dog, Kimmi

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Papa Bear
(aka koro)

I will admit I missed the second half of his Season and I'm not really clear on what caused his eventual demise. I think it's safe to assume he caused it himself most likely A paranoid flip-floppy mess of a player, but I honestly mean that in the nicest way. Super great value and fun to watch in meltdown mode. And he seems to have a bad habit of maybe bringing that on himself?

Like Cochran said, I can see him leaving this tribe early. Now *maybe* he gets lucky and that means leaving via the ambassador twist or maybe they just cut him quick. If this was a super noobie tribe maybe he could ride out the Returnee status for a few rounds under the guise of showing them the ropes, but I think between Debb & Mad Dog & Kimmy (& Keith?), he will be found out in super quick time. I just hope he figures it out and realises it so he can go into super meltdown mode before he leaves

I'm gonna have to predict him not to do very well I'm afraid. Pre-merge boot, and earliest returnee to leave the game.

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Debb
(aka Rudy)

Like I said in apps stage, Rudy is no-school like the old-school similar to Patagonia winner Yve (Jeremy) in that he has years of ORG experience over even the regular players in the cast. I had the pleasure of playing with him once in Arkham, where he was a hilarious and screwball Joker, and the displeasure another once, where he was an absolute fruitcake and blew up his game and tanked all his allies while he was at it.

My point being, he has the experience of an Yve or a Patty, but he's just not gonna find a steady ship and steer it to the win. He can't sit still that long He's a natural fidget and if things are on cruise control and he gets bored, he will fuck around for shits and giggles and see what happens.

He will do well. Well enough to go deep into the game. And then maybe he gets to Final 6 or so and suddenly realises there's a win in this if he plays it just right. I'm gonna call a late endgame boot. Maybe even last before the finals and fourth place.

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Jeff
(aka BigBroCan)

Ok I like this guy on first impressions but I also fear he might have a little bit of an inflated opinion of himself.. which is fine if you have the self-awareness to cope for that.. but I'm afraid he is lacking in that department. I love this line for instance;

10. What personality types do you typically clash with?
Idiots and morons who think they are smarter than me when they're not.

but I come away with the impression that if he met himself, they would both think that about the other We'll see of course, I am not too often correct in these things, but I just see him rubbing all the wrong people the wrong ways once the game begins.

On the bright side, even if I'm spot on, then we ought to be in for an entertaining player, ready to mix it up and cause some genuine drama once things get heavy. He is eager, and possibly that'll serve him at least till a tribe shuffle. I can see him being traded away by the ambassador, or maybe just making it to a shuffle and then getting cut. Let's say booted just pre-merge.

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Keith
(aka Glurrrp)

Another one that is familiar to a few of the hosts yet all I know of him is the app. Word is he's an overplayer. Do you guys mean lives at the board, or makes big dumb unnecessary moves? Either way works for me

He says in there that he wants to improve and Cochran mentioned he has even asked for tips. So that's good, it shows he's willing to put in a bit of extra work to try prepare himself. But just reading the app, even though he's saying he'll keep himself on the down low till late game this time, it's pretty clear there's no way in hell he is gonna manage to actually do that

So he'll be a big character for sure, but I think that'll mean like Jeff above, plays big and goes home. Pre-merge boot.

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Kimmy
(aka GerbilGeorge)

Oooh, someone I've actually played with. She was Hawkeye & I was Tony Stark and we had a brief alliance. She was.. okay but not amazing. That was a long time ago now though, I have to imagine she's improved somewhat if he's been playing regularly. Kimmy is a good match actually. I found him to be easy-going and trustable - not a big mover or shaker. So she'll give him an easy way to translate that playstyle into something that will go places and ride out an alliance for the first half of the game.

The app is all very vanilla and not really screaming anything at me. She's not gonna be a big face or a big rep, but she'll be just fine. Reminds me of Lindsey, and she won. For Kimmy though, I will chalk her up as a early to mid Juror. I think she'll glide by the early game - she's got the skills and the personality for that easily. But she's gonna have to pull out some big moves of her own if she wants to do better than that.

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Mad Dog
(aka AusStranded Dawn)

Dawn is fun. And just a little kooky. The kookiness is not all that apparent for a while though, so Mad Dog is probably a good rep to highlight that part of him. I've not seen her in action but this;

I would say I play like Cirie, as I do my best to get people on side and be lovable, and have them view me as a non-threat, but a strong ally.

seems very accurate going by her persona over at the AusBoard. She is kinda there, not ever the center of attention but flirting with the edges of it, which in Survivor is right where you want to be. A little sassy but not vindictive, and she definitely has a little anti-authority streak going on

How that will work out in-game I just don't know. She has the skills to go far, I might even say here is a finalist. But then she has the Aussie timezone and she works during events. Nice that she can be here, but that's still gonna clip her wings a little. A lot of her game is gonna depend on whether people "get" her or not.

Finalist.

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Tina
(aka LonLonMilk)

This tribe is srsly lacking in first time players and this could hurt Tina if they go on any kind of losing streak. I am getting extreme -I-won't-realise-the-importance-of-PMing-and-get-left-behind-fot-it- vibes here and I hate to say first-boot potential.

Her app is very.. nice and it leads me to think her playstyle will also be very.. nice She's gonna really need to land on her feet early. But saying that, if she does find something to grasp early in the game she sounds like someone who can do very well out of a solid alliance by staying true while the Big Dogs get shifty and try to undercut each other. I trust her already

Prediction, early boot.

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[Brenda Lowe]

Rai Tribe

This tribe is mostly nuts. Like, not the funsie nuts of Madhesi mixed with a good pinch of experience and strategy, just blatant crazy. This tribe is so fucked in general though. I think they are gonna go on a losing streak early. BB will be traded away as soon as someone can manage it unless they hold onto him for fodder. From there I have no idea where they'll go. I could see a Hatch/Ramona/Jenna core forming and a Hayden/Sean/Stacey one and I could see the Hatch side winning. Hayden jumping to them, and the other two getting cast off.

Likely early boots: BB, Stacey?
Likely game Winners: Jenna, Hatch

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Hayden
(aka usuck)

The return of Hayden I think I was maybe the least fangurley of the hosts regarding Hayden first time around. Don't get me wrong, he is fun and very Broski, but I feel like beyond that, he doesn't offer all that much? He is not particularly strategical, no great shakes in a challenge, not like some huge entertaining drama whore - so I don't really know what the huge attraction is apart from a nice guy who's enthusiastic.

So I'm hoping to be proven wrong here and to see some big shake-up in his approach. He did get kinda swapfucked last time, and was a little robbed of the chance to prove himself for the merge, but again, I'm just not sure what he would have even done with that. I can't see him winning, but he's been through it once before and the Returnee status will keep him afloat long enough to do well.

I can see him making the merge and leaving soon after. I would love to be surprised.

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BB
(aka Spooky)

2. What is your main motivation for playing?
Hate

3. Have you played in other online games? If so, how many/what type?
I played in neopets big brother
yea
your jelous

Alol what even is this app? Sorry Probst, I would not have cast.

I cannot see this guy lasting long at all. If he doesn't pull a no-show, he'll get booted fast from his tribe. Fingers crossed he'll be at least entertaining along the way. If e somehow arrives in game with a different personality or some kind of focused 'hate'. Maybe we get some kind of epic troll. My money is on an epic fail. And maybe not even an epic one

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Jenna
(aka LemmyLime)

I quite like this app & chat. Good head on the shoulders here but not afraid to mix it up if the situation applies. I think she is gonna play a game very based on what she is surrounded by. Lemme read and write the rest of these up and I'll come back to her.

**

Okay after reading around the rest of the apps I think she is going to hate a lot of these tribemates. She will probably click with Hatch & Ramona and do well from there.

I am gonna predict this tribe gets decimated early, but she is one of the Survivors which would put her in a minority later. But I also think she can handle that better than anyone else on the tribe and will probably do very well from it. Potential finalist right here.

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Ramona
(aka JustDoYou/IdolsBlow)

Oh God she does that pet peeve of mine where half her sentences start with "As a.." We don't need to know your qualifications before every statement. Saying 'As an xyz' just makes you sound proud & pretentious. As a gamer, I would have no problems booting her for this. Now as a host, I think she will do okay (k I'll stop. Ugh though). She has a little experience with the YouTube ORGs so that'll be interesting to see how it translates to this style of gaming. She does seem quite intelligent and at least a little modest (once you get past the 'As a..'s ). I don't imagine she's going to be a big mover or a shaker and will probably fall into a quieter plainer kind of role. At least for the early game. She seems smart enough to know to mix it up if it needs to be mixed up and willing to do that when the scenario calls for it.

I will put my casting comment from before here to just show I'm not quite as turned off as I sound in this write-up so far

I quite like this guy. Sounds smart and maybe like, shy IRL but better in the written format of the internet. Cast as someone bookish and wordy, and maybe foreign? He sounds Asian lol. Or at least, there is something about his writing style that gives off a learned English vibe. Like it doesn't sit quite right in his mouth. Or maybe just young college age smarts trying to use a vocabulary that shows he's eager to impress.

I like him though. I think he'd be very dedicated to the game and a calculated player. 8/10 eager to see his eagerness.

I think she'll be fine so long as her tribe is fine. If the tribe starts taking some heavy hits she might leave somewhere middle of that stage. Not an easy early boot, but not quite canny enough to be one of the last ones standing. Overall in the game, I think she'll be someone to just generally keep an eye on. She could be quite plain for a lot of it but then just have one epic round that makes up for the rest.

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Hatch
(aka rematch287)

This is a biiiiiiig shoes to fill with this rep. Hope he's up for it;
"Also, I think it would be hilarious to school the shit out of some people."
I do think it's a good match.

Wow, love the app. This is a guy who could legitimately get on real life Survivor. He is kinda a little caricatured with the Chess Champion background and the bit about hating jocks so much, but Survivor production would lap that shit up. It nearly sounds made-up.

In less raw terms he does come across as both fun and capable, and kooky enough to be fun to be around, even if that is just on an online forum. I think he's gonna do very well, and even be able to connect with the BBs of the tribe where others could fail to. I also get the feeling he might get a little cockier and cockier as the game goes on and sooner or later we might get a come-uppance arc for a budding villain.

I'm gonna predict him to make the end-game, but somewhere around the bottleneck of threats getting taken out 7th through 4th he'll come a cropper.

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Sean
(aka RockyLXIX)

Wow, such an iconic rep sheet on this tribe. And who names a guy who got 3rd boot as a player he'd liken himself to?

He is gonna gel so well with Hayden. Holy fuckwow if those two become the power core of this tribe but it's not out of the bounds of possibility. Does he know yet that he is Dr. Sean? I wonder if the news will make him more willing to be crazy or less willing to blow a rep that is one of his faves and therefore more cautious than he ought to be.

I am really not sure what to expect here. I think he's gonna be fun enough to get in well with a lot of people. Especially when you have the truly crazy BB on hand to point to and say well at least Sean isn't that crazy. Can he build on that into a nice run? He'd be super fun at the merge or even a shuffle but I kinda feel like he's not going to get far enough to get the chance to show us that.

I hope he can find his cashews at least.

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Stacey
(aka Alex/Rachel)

Never watched Survivor, but did play Isolated? Has a rough idea of how it works? Alol. This girl is gonna be a mess. She sums it up nicely actually;
"A big mix of clueless, stupid, rude, dramatic, scheeming/manipulative, and psycho! VERY psycho!"
Well fucking hell, maybe BB & Dr Sean stand a chance of Survival on this tribe after all. If there's enough crazy around, maybe they'll take over the asylum? I get the feeling this tribe beach is going to be the one that is hopping and fun.

But back to Stacey, I really have no clue. Someone involved with Isolated will know better but I think she is crazy in a good way and ought to be able to temper that a little into good fun craycray that will keep her alive for a little while, rather than irritating crazy person that people want out in a hurry.

Um, no real idea. First out after a tribal switch or ambassador traded away and insta-boot from somewhere else.

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[Jeff Probst]

ppppeter?

[Mia Galeotalanza]

Voltage was my discovery from Sucks! Her first game was Crashcoruse and she had the workings of a great social game, but was the merge boot. She's picked it up SO much since then and even dropped out of another game that she wanted to play in to be here because she knew how great this series was and didn't want to squander the opportunity like SOME players we know (*cough*doob*cough*

I think she'll be great in this, and Lisa is PERFECT rep assignment.

Also, gerbil_george is another one I found <3 It warms my heart that he's Kimmy <3

[Ashley Underwood]

Brenda's assessment of Zane I am rooting for him big time! I played with him in Aus Stranded but I was virtually the merge boot and very oblivious at that so my experience with him there was beyond minimal. He was amazing to watch in Expendables - gone too soon </3

[Brenda Lowe]

K, let's see how completely wrong I am this year.

21 BB
20 Stacey
19 Artis
18 Sean
17 Tina
16 Papa Bear
15 Keith
14 Jeff
13 Ramona
12 Richard
11 Carter
10 Denise
9 Lisa
8 Hayden
7 Kimmy
6 Chris
5 Angie
4 Debb
3 Mad Dog
2 Jenna
1 Zane